Mijas Las Lagunas vs Sevilla Atletico Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Mijas Las Lagunas and 1.58 for Sevilla Atletico, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Mijas Las Lagunas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mijas Las Lagunas win

50.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mijas Las Lagunas home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla Atletico away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mijas Las Lagunas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Mijas Las Lagunas and 1.58 for Sevilla Atletico, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Mijas Las Lagunas win51%

Draw21%

Sevilla Atletico win29%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.8%
1–18.2%
2–26.9%
1–26.5%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Mijas Las Lagunas

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Lucena · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 1-0 (W)

Sevilla Atletico

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Central · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanluqueño · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbella · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mijas Las Lagunas win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.