MIKA Stadium · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Mika vs Shirak II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Mika and 1.44 for Shirak II, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Mika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mika win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mika home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Mika and 1.44 for Shirak II, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Mika
- 2026-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Andranik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bentonit Ijevan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Banants II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia II · 1-1 (D)
Shirak II
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Noah II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympia Yerevan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ararat II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Araks Ararat · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mika win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.