Stadio Grotta Polifemo · Analysis updated 20:17 UTC
Milazzo vs Sambiase Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Milazzo and 1.10 for Sambiase, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Sambiase the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Milazzo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sambiase away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sambiase to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 29% / 31% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Milazzo and 1.10 for Sambiase, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Milazzo
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Modica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Digiesse PraiaTortora · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Siracusa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Palermo · 0-3 (L)
Sambiase
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Licata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Milazzo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Milazzo 0-1 Sambiase (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-12-07T14:00:00.000Z · Milazzo 1-0 Sambiase (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.