· Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Milazzo vs Sambiase Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Milazzo and 1.15 for Sambiase, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Milazzo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Milazzo win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Milazzo home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sambiase away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Milazzo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Milazzo and 1.15 for Sambiase, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Milazzo
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Palermo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sambiase · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ragusa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CastrumFavara · 0-3 (L)
Sambiase
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Licata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Milazzo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Milazzo 0-1 Sambiase (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-12-07T14:00:00.000Z · Milazzo 1-0 Sambiase (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Licata | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vibonese | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Nissa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | AC Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Gela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Milazzo win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.