Millesimo vs Ligorna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Millesimo and 1.30 for Ligorna, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Millesimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Millesimo win

49.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ligorna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Millesimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Millesimo and 1.30 for Ligorna, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Millesimo win49%

Draw23%

Ligorna win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.5%
2–19.5%
1–08.1%
2–07.3%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Millesimo

Ligorna

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derthona · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Millesimo win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.