The Den · Referee Edward Duckworth · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Millwall vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Millwall and 0.99 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Millwall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Millwall home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Swansea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 56.9% vs market 47.3%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.1% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.6% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.3% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.9% | 39.6% | 2.53 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.6% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Millwall
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-1 (L)
Swansea
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Millwall 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · Millwall 1-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Millwall 1-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Millwall 1-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2024-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Millwall 1-0 Swansea (Championship)
- 2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Millwall 0-3 Swansea (Championship)
- 2023-03-14T19:45:00.000Z · Millwall 2-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2022-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Millwall 2-2 Swansea (Championship)
- 2022-04-05T18:45:00.000Z · Millwall 0-1 Swansea (Championship)
- 2021-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · Millwall 0-0 Swansea (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.