Complexul Sportiv Raional · Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Milsami Orhei and 0.88 for Politehnica UTM, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Milsami Orhei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Milsami Orhei win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Milsami Orhei home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Politehnica UTM away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Milsami Orhei to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Milsami Orhei and 0.88 for Politehnica UTM, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Milsami Orhei
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 1-0 (W)
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Milsami Orhei 1-1 Politehnica UTM (Super Liga)
- 2025-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Milsami Orhei 5-0 Politehnica UTM (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-17T17:00:00.000Z · Milsami Orhei 4-1 Politehnica UTM (Super Liga)
- 2025-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · Milsami Orhei 3-0 Politehnica UTM (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Milsami Orhei win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.