Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.37 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Milton Keynes Dons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Milton Keynes Dons win

54.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Milton Keynes Dons home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crawley Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Milton Keynes Dons win54%

Draw21%

Crawley Town win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–19.0%
2–06.8%
1–06.6%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Milton Keynes Dons

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford U21 · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crawley Town · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough · 1-1 (D)

Crawley Town

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesterfield · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Dons · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 Crawley Town (EFL Trophy)
2026-02-17T19:45:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Crawley Town (League Two)
2025-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Crawley Town (League Two)
2024-05-11T18:45:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 1-5 Crawley Town (League Two)
2024-05-07T18:30:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 0-3 Crawley Town (League Two)
2023-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 Crawley Town (League Two)
2023-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 Crawley Town (League Two)
2019-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 Crawley Town (League Two)
2018-11-03T15:00:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 4-0 Crawley Town (League Two)
2015-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Milton Keynes Dons 2-2 Crawley Town (League One)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Milton Keynes Dons win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.