Estadio Huancayo · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Minas vs Ayacucho FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Minas and 0.78 for Ayacucho FC, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Minas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minas win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ayacucho FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Minas and 0.78 for Ayacucho FC, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Minas
Ayacucho FC
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Binacional · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Minas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantil CNI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bentín Tacna Heroica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minas win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.