· Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Minaur Baia Mare vs Transilvania Sport Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.35 expected goals for Minaur Baia Mare and 0.85 for Transilvania Sport Academy, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Minaur Baia Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minaur Baia Mare win
84.1% probability
Expected goals
3.35 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minaur Baia Mare home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Transilvania Sport Academy away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minaur Baia Mare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.35 goals for Minaur Baia Mare and 0.85 for Transilvania Sport Academy, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Minaur Baia Mare
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Cluj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Dej · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crişul Sântandrei · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Recea · 3-1 (W)
Transilvania Sport Academy
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sighetu Marmaţiei · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Tășnad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Minaur Baia Mare · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Cluj · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Dej · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 23 |
| 2 | Sănătatea Cluj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Crişul Sântandrei | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Academica Recea | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | SCM Zalău | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sânmartin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bihorul Beiuş | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Viitorul Cluj | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Unirea Tășnad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 11 | Unirea Dej | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minaur Baia Mare win, at 84.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.