· Analysis updated 10:04 UTC
Mineiros vs Crixás EC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Mineiros and 0.83 for Crixás EC, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Mineiros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mineiros win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mineiros home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crixás EC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mineiros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Mineiros and 0.83 for Crixás EC, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Mineiros
- 2026-10-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiânia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Trindade · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Morrinhos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Tupy FC · 1-0 (W)
Crixás EC
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morrinhos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Trindade · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineiros · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Goianésia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 3 | Bom Jesus EC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Trindade | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mineiros win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.