· Analysis updated 23:52 UTC
Mineros de Fresnillo vs Acambaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mineros de Fresnillo and 1.00 for Acambaro, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Mineros de Fresnillo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mineros de Fresnillo win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mineros de Fresnillo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Acambaro away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mineros de Fresnillo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Mineros de Fresnillo and 1.00 for Acambaro, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Mineros de Fresnillo
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaqueros Reynosa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Héroes de Zaci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Santiago · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Correcaminos UAT II · 0-0 (D)
Acambaro
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mineros de Fresnillo win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.