Mineros de Guyana vs Bolívar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mineros de Guyana and 1.14 for Bolívar, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Mineros de Guyana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mineros de Guyana home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolívar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mineros de Guyana win37%

Draw28%

Bolívar win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–011.5%
0–111.2%
0–09.8%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Mineros de Guyana

2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 5-0 (W)

Bolívar

2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 2-1 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2026-06-24T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-1 Bolívar (Copa Venezuela)
2026-04-25T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 2-3 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2026-03-01T19:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 0-1 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2025-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 0-0 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2025-07-13T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-0 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2025-06-25T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 5-0 Bolívar (Copa Venezuela)
2025-06-18T19:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-2 Bolívar (Copa Venezuela)
2025-05-14T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-1 Bolívar (Segunda División)
2025-03-30T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 2-0 Bolívar (Segunda División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Lara	29	19	6	4	29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	29	15	8	6	20	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	29	13	7	9	13	46
4	Urena SC	29	12	10	7	7	46
5	Zamora FC B	29	11	7	11	2	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	11	7	12	-10	40
7	Puerto Cabello II	30	9	7	14	-6	34
8	Club Atletico Barinas	30	9	5	16	-11	32
9	Real Frontera	29	3	3	23	-44	12
1	Monagas II	22	11	6	5	10	39
2	Petare FC	23	11	5	7	8	38
3	Bolívar	24	11	4	9	-1	37
4	Aragua FC	23	9	9	5	6	36
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	23	8	8	7	2	32
6	Mineros de Guyana	24	4	9	11	-7	21
7	Marítimo	14	5	5	4	3	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	23	1	10	12	-21	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.