Estadio Cachamay · Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Mineros de Guyana vs Monagas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Mineros de Guyana and 1.45 for Monagas II, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Monagas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas II win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mineros de Guyana home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–210.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Mineros de Guyana
- 2026-10-21T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 1-0 (W)
Monagas II
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Avila FC · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-2 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-09T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 2-2 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2026-03-14T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-2 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-2 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2025-08-02T19:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 1-1 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2025-06-07T20:00:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 2-1 Monagas II (Segunda División)
- 2025-04-20T23:30:00.000Z · Mineros de Guyana 4-0 Monagas II (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas II win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.