· Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
Minerul Lupeni vs CSM Targu Jiu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Minerul Lupeni and 0.93 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Minerul Lupeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minerul Lupeni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSM Targu Jiu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minerul Lupeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Minerul Lupeni and 0.93 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Minerul Lupeni
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiul Petroşani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Bascov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Hartiesti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Balș · 1-0 (W)
CSM Targu Jiu
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Filiaşi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.