· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Minerul Lupeni vs Păușești Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Minerul Lupeni and 0.73 for Păușești, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Minerul Lupeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minerul Lupeni win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minerul Lupeni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Păușești away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minerul Lupeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Minerul Lupeni and 0.73 for Păușești, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 0–013.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Minerul Lupeni
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiul Petroşani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Bascov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Hartiesti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Balș · 1-0 (W)
Păușești
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CS U Craiova II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Filiaşi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltul Curtişoara · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | CSM Targu Jiu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Jiul Petroşani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Filiaşi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Academica Balș | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Păușești | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -25 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minerul Lupeni win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.