Mines vs Kabwe Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Mines and 1.28 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Kabwe Warriors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kabwe Warriors win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mines home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kabwe Warriors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Mines and 1.28 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 43%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Match result (1X2)

Mines win26%

Draw29%

Kabwe Warriors win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–114.5%
1–113.0%
0–011.4%
1–010.2%
0–29.2%

Recent form

Mines

2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Eagles · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mutondo Stars · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Konkola Blades · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zanaco · 0-2 (L)

Kabwe Warriors

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutondo Stars · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · Mines 0-1 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)
2025-11-30T07:30:00.000Z · Mines 0-2 Kabwe Warriors (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zanaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kabwe Warriors win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.