Minija vs Jonava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Minija and 0.63 for Jonava, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Minija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Minija win

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Minija home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jonava away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Minija win63%

Draw24%

Jonava win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.8%
2–014.1%
1–110.5%
0–010.0%
2–18.8%

Recent form

Minija

2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BFA · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 2-1 (W)

Jonava

2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FA Šiauliai II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ekranas · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · Minija 2-1 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · Minija 0-0 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2025-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Minija 0-1 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2025-06-13T15:30:00.000Z · Minija 0-0 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2023-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · Minija 2-1 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2023-04-01T11:00:00.000Z · Minija 3-0 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2021-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · Minija 0-8 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2021-06-12T14:00:00.000Z · Minija 1-2 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2020-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · Minija 1-2 Jonava (1 Lyga)
2019-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Minija 1-4 Jonava (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Babrungas	28	22	4	2	39	70
2	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
7	Dainava	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	28	8	2	18	-21	26
13	Hegelmann II	28	8	2	18	-29	26
14	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Minija win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.