· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Minija vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Minija and 1.30 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Minija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minija win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minija home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kauno Žalgiris away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Minija and 1.30 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Minija
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dainava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Transinvest 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 3-2 (W)
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minija win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.