Minija vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Minija and 0.61 for Neptūną Klaipėda, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Minija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Minija win

77.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.42 – 0.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Minija home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Minija and 0.61 for Neptūną Klaipėda, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 42%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Minija win77%

Draw15%

Neptūną Klaipėda win8%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

2–014.1%
1–011.7%
3–011.4%
2–18.6%
1–17.1%

Recent form

Minija

2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dainava · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Transinvest 2 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 3-2 (W)

Neptūną Klaipėda

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Minija win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.