Allianz Field · Referee Allen Chapman, USA · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.28 for Orlando City SC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Minnesota United FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minnesota United FC win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minnesota United FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orlando City SC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.50 | 37.2% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.55 | 37.0% | 38.0% | 2.63 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.6% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.81 | 51.7% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.7% | 77.7% | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.6% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 47.8% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 63.0% | 62.0% | 1.61 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.48 | 62.8% | 61.6% | 1.62 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.95 | 23.7% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Minnesota United FC
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-3 (L)
Orlando City SC
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Toronto FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-03-10T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 3-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-04-16T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-02-01T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 0-2 Orlando City SC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 2-3 Orlando City SC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2019-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-1 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2018-03-11T00:30:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 2-1 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2017-05-28T00:00:00.000Z · Minnesota United FC 1-0 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minnesota United FC win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.