Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.97 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives San Jose Earthquakes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

San Jose Earthquakes win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Minnesota United FC home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Jose Earthquakes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Jose Earthquakes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.97 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Minnesota United FC win25%

Draw22%

San Jose Earthquakes win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.6%
0–17.5%
0–27.4%
1–36.3%

Recent form

Minnesota United FC

2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)

San Jose Earthquakes

2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Jose Earthquakes win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.