· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Mirandés II vs Almazán Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mirandés II and 1.40 for Almazán, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Almazán the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Almazán win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirandés II home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almazán away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–09.1%
Recent form
Mirandés II
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bembibre · 1-1 (D)
Almazán
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegios Diocesanos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villaralbo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 3-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-11-10T15:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-02-10T15:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-09-23T15:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 2-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-03-12T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-11-05T14:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-01-15T14:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 2-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Almazán win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.