· Analysis updated 17:01 UTC
Mirandés II vs Palencia CF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Mirandés II and 1.49 for Palencia CF, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Palencia CF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palencia CF win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirandés II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palencia CF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Mirandés II
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
Palencia CF
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2026-02-01T11:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-3 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-09-21T10:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-02-23T11:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 2-1 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-03-02T15:30:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-1 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 0-2 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-02-26T16:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 2-3 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 1-2 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-01-23T15:00:00.000Z · Mirandés II 2-1 Palencia CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palencia CF win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.