Estadio Municipal de Ence · Referee Santiago Quirce · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Mirandés II vs Ribert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mirandés II and 0.78 for Ribert, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Mirandés II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mirandés II win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirandés II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ribert away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirandés II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Mirandés II and 0.78 for Ribert, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Mirandés II
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
Ribert
- 2026-08-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 0-2 (L)
- 2022-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad Rodrigo · 3-2 (W)
- 2022-04-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mirandés II win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.