Estadio Municipal de Anduva · Referee J. Vidal · Analysis updated 18:53 UTC
Mirandes vs Unionistas de Salamanca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mirandes and 0.68 for Unionistas de Salamanca, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Mirandes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mirandes win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mirandes home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Unionistas de Salamanca away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirandes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Mirandes and 0.68 for Unionistas de Salamanca, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 60.0% vs market 49.3%, edge +10.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 60.0% | 1.67 | +10.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 84.6% | 85.2% | 1.17 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.3% | 38.8% | 2.58 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 61.1% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 23.8% | 23.9% | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.80 | 15.2% | 14.9% | 6.71 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -10.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Mirandes
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 1-0 (W)
Unionistas de Salamanca
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandes · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Mirandes 1-0 Unionistas de Salamanca (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mirandes win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.