· Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
Mitrovica vs Liria Prizren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.35 expected goals for Mitrovica and 0.98 for Liria Prizren, a combined total of 1.33. That distribution gives Liria Prizren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Liria Prizren win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
0.35 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mitrovica home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Liria Prizren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liria Prizren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 13% / 37% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.35 goals for Mitrovica and 0.98 for Liria Prizren, a combined 1.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.6%
- 0–125.9%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–19.1%
Recent form
Mitrovica
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vjosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Besa Peja · 0-1 (L)
Liria Prizren
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kika · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ramiz Sadiku · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liria Prizren | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina e Re | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Trepça'89 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Rilindja 1974 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Suhareka | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | 2 Korriku | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Vëllaznimi | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 10 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | Vjosa | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Kika | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Ramiz Sadiku | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | KF Lepenci | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liria Prizren win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.