Mitrovica vs Tefik Canga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Mitrovica and 1.00 for Tefik Canga, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Mitrovica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mitrovica home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tefik Canga away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mitrovica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Mitrovica and 1.00 for Tefik Canga, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mitrovica win39%

Draw30%

Tefik Canga win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–013.4%
1–113.4%
0–011.8%
0–111.8%
2–07.6%

Recent form

Mitrovica

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Besa Peja · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Suhareka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tefik Canga · 2-2 (D)

Tefik Canga

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KF Lepenci · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kika · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga E Pare table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	9	5	4	0	12	19
2	Prishtina e Re	9	6	0	3	6	18
3	Liria Prizren	8	5	2	1	5	17
4	Rilindja 1974	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Trepça'89	9	4	4	1	5	16
6	Suhareka	9	3	4	2	5	13
7	Ferizaj	9	3	4	2	5	13
8	Istogu	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	2 Korriku	9	3	3	3	1	12
10	FC Besa Peja	9	3	2	4	0	11
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	3	2	4	-7	11
12	Vjosa	9	2	4	3	1	10
13	Vëllaznimi	9	3	1	5	-7	10
14	Kika	9	1	6	2	-4	9
15	Ramiz Sadiku	9	1	5	3	-4	8
16	KF Lepenci	9	1	5	3	-4	8
17	Mitrovica	8	0	4	4	-7	4
18	Tefik Canga	9	0	3	6	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.