· Analysis updated 14:00 UTC
Mitrovica vs Trepça'89 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Mitrovica and 1.32 for Trepça'89, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Trepça'89 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trepça'89 win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mitrovica home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Trepça'89 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trepça'89 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 19% / 29% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Mitrovica and 1.32 for Trepça'89, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.0%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
Mitrovica
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Besa Peja · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Suhareka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tefik Canga · 2-2 (D)
Trepça'89
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 2 Korriku · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istogu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Prishtina e Re | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Liria Prizren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Rilindja 1974 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Trepça'89 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Suhareka | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Ferizaj | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Istogu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 9 | 2 Korriku | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Besa Peja | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Vjosa | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 13 | Vëllaznimi | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Kika | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Ramiz Sadiku | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | KF Lepenci | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Mitrovica | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Tefik Canga | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trepça'89 win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.