· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Mixco vs Marquense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Mixco and 1.24 for Marquense, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Mixco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mixco win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mixco home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marquense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mixco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Mixco and 1.24 for Marquense, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Mixco
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobán Imperial · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacateco · 0-1 (L)
Marquense
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Xelajú · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mixco win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.