Strandvallen · Referee Adam Ladeback, Sweden · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.23 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Degerfors IF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mjallby AIF home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Degerfors IF away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Mjallby AIF
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 0-1 (L)
Degerfors IF
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 4-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 1-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-04-27T12:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 4-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-04-16T15:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 0-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-07-23T15:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 2-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Mjallby AIF 1-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.