ML Vitebsk vs Neman Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for ML Vitebsk and 1.05 for Neman, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives ML Vitebsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ML Vitebsk home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Neman away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ML Vitebsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for ML Vitebsk and 1.05 for Neman, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

ML Vitebsk win41%

Draw28%

Neman win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–012.5%
0–110.5%
0–010.0%
2–18.2%

Recent form

ML Vitebsk

2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neman · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 1-1 (D)

Neman

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.