Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.98 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Mlada Boleslav the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mlada Boleslav win

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mlada Boleslav home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovácko away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mlada Boleslav win69%

Draw18%

Slovácko win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.9%
2–19.6%
1–08.2%
1–18.0%
3–07.9%

Recent form

Mlada Boleslav

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teplice · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Příbram · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno · 2-0 (W)

Slovácko

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 3-0 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2025-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2025-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2024-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 3-0 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2024-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-1 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2023-12-16T14:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-1 Slovácko (Czech Liga)
2023-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Slovácko (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	11	8	3	0	20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	6	2	3	4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	6	2	3	6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	11	6	1	4	0	19
6	Sparta Praha	11	6	1	4	8	19
7	Teplice	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	FK Jablonec	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Plzen	11	4	4	3	4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	10	4	3	3	0	15
11	Hradec Králové	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Pardubice	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	3	2	6	-11	11
14	Artis	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Slovácko	11	1	4	6	-8	7
16	Zlin	11	0	1	10	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mlada Boleslav win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.