Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 2.00 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Mlada Boleslav the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mlada Boleslav win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mlada Boleslav home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mlada Boleslav win50%

Draw19%

Sparta Praha win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–16.9%
2–26.9%
3–15.8%
3–25.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

Mlada Boleslav

2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Příbram · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Třinec · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Liberec · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 4-0 (W)

Sparta Praha

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2026-03-03T19:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Sparta Praha (Cup)
2025-11-22T14:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2025-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-3 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2025-04-13T13:30:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2024-11-10T14:30:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2024-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2024-04-07T16:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2023-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
2023-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Mlada Boleslav 1-4 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	10	8	2	0	20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	10	6	2	2	7	20
3	Sparta Praha	10	6	0	4	8	18
4	Mlada Boleslav	9	5	2	2	5	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	FK Jablonec	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Teplice	10	5	2	3	2	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	5	1	4	-1	16
9	Hradec Králové	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	Plzen	10	3	4	3	3	13
11	Bohemians 1905	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Baník Ostrava	10	3	1	6	-11	10
13	Artis	10	2	2	6	-9	8
14	Pardubice	10	2	2	6	-7	8
15	Slovácko	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	Zlin	10	0	1	9	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mlada Boleslav win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.