DG Arena · Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mladost DG and 1.88 for Otrant-Olympic, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Otrant-Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Otrant-Olympic win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost DG home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Otrant-Olympic away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
Mladost DG
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
Otrant-Olympic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 2-1 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2024-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 2-2 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2024-05-31T15:30:00.000Z · Mladost DG 0-1 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2024-02-10T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 0-2 Otrant-Olympic (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 1-0 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2023-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · Mladost DG 1-0 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2022-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 3-0 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2022-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · Mladost DG 2-1 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Otrant-Olympic win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.