Montenegro · Second League · Matchweek 614:30

3 – 3

Thursday, 17 September 2026

ZetaWDLWL

· Analysis updated 05:32 UTC

Mladost Lješkopolje vs Zeta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Mladost Lješkopolje and 1.03 for Zeta, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Zeta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

  • Mladost Lješkopolje home form

    9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Zeta away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Zeta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 29% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 0.85 goals for Mladost Lješkopolje and 1.03 for Zeta, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mladost Lješkopolje win29%
Draw32%
Zeta win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%
Over 2.5 goals29%
Over 3.5 goals12%
Both teams to score37%

Correct score

  • 0–115.7%
  • 0–015.3%
  • 1–113.4%
  • 1–013.0%
  • 0–28.1%

Recent form

Mladost Lješkopolje

  • 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kom · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Berane · 3-2 (W)

Zeta

  • 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lovćen · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Mladost Lješkopolje13661724
2Jedinstvo137241023
3Zeta13643622
4Kom12633521
5Lovćen13616019
6Rudar13454017
7Iskra13526017
8Grbalj12444-416
9Mogren13355014
10Berane130211-242

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.