· Referee S. Jovanovic · Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Mladost Lucani vs Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.05 for Novi Pazar, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Lucani home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.05 for Novi Pazar, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Mladost Lucani
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-5 (L)
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Cukaricki | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.