· Referee P. Ilic · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki NIS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mladost Lucani and 0.73 for Radnicki NIS, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Mladost Lucani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mladost Lucani win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Lucani home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Radnicki NIS away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.7%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Mladost Lucani
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 3-1 (W)
Radnicki NIS
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lucani · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 0-1 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-29T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 2-1 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2025-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 1-3 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2025-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 1-1 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2024-10-27T19:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 1-1 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2024-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 0-3 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2023-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 1-2 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2023-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 2-1 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2023-02-04T13:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 1-2 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
- 2022-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · Mladost Lucani 2-2 Radnicki NIS (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mladost Lucani win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.