· Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Mladost Ždralovi vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mladost Ždralovi and 0.99 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Mladost Ždralovi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Ždralovi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dubrava Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mladost Ždralovi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Mladost Ždralovi and 0.99 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Mladost Ždralovi
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 0-0 (D)
Dubrava Zagreb
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Opatija · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.