· Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Mladost Ždralovi vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mladost Ždralovi and 0.95 for Karlovac 1919, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Mladost Ždralovi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mladost Ždralovi win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mladost Ždralovi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Karlovac 1919 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Mladost Ždralovi
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 0-0 (D)
Karlovac 1919
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 1-0 Karlovac 1919 (First NL)
- 2025-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 1-1 Karlovac 1919 (Second NL)
- 2024-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 3-2 Karlovac 1919 (Second NL)
- 2024-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 2-3 Karlovac 1919 (Second NL)
- 2023-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · Mladost Ždralovi 2-3 Karlovac 1919 (Second NL)
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Zmijavci | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Segesta Sisak | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Jadran LP | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Orijent 1919 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Opatija | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Mladost Ždralovi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Kustosija | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Sesvete | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Dubrava Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Vukovar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Dugopolje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mladost Ždralovi win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.