· Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
MO Bejaia vs Khroub Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for MO Bejaia and 0.80 for Khroub, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives MO Bejaia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MO Bejaia win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MO Bejaia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khroub away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MO Bejaia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for MO Bejaia and 0.80 for Khroub, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
MO Bejaia
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nrb Beni Oulbene · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs USM Annaba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Khroub · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JS Bordj Ménaïel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Chaouia · 1-0 (W)
Khroub
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleghma · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Batna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs MO Bejaia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JS Jijel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Chelghoum Laïd · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSP Batna | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Azazga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | USM Annaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | MO Constantine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | NC Magra | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | JSM Skikda | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Khroub | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Nrb Beni Oulbene | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | US Chaouia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | MO Bejaia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Paradou AC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | CA Batna | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Teleghma | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | CR Béni Thour | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Blida | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | RC Kouba | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | GC Mascara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | MC Saida | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | ASM Oran | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Usm El Harrach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Mostaganem | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sidi Benali | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | WA Mostaganem | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Hussein Dey | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Tiaret | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | WA Tlemcen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | RC Arba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Koléa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | El Bayadh | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Taghit | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MO Bejaia win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.