Stadio Alberto Braglia · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Modena vs Cesena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Modena and 1.00 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Modena win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Modena home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cesena away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Modena and 1.00 for Cesena, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Modena
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
Cesena
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mantova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Entella · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Modena win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.