· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Modena vs Virtus Bolzano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Modena and 0.91 for Virtus Bolzano, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Modena win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Modena home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Bolzano away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Modena and 0.91 for Virtus Bolzano, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Modena
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
Virtus Bolzano
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Calvi Noale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altavilla · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandona · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luparense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Modena 5-0 Virtus Bolzano (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Modena win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.