· Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Modena vs Vis Pesaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.20 expected goals for Modena and 0.30 for Vis Pesaro, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Modena win
96.2% probability
Expected goals
4.20 – 0.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Modena home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Vis Pesaro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.20 goals for Modena and 0.30 for Vis Pesaro, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
4%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–014.4%
- 3–013.7%
- 5–012.1%
- 2–09.8%
- 6–08.5%
Recent form
Modena
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
Vis Pesaro
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Forli · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Modena win, at 96.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.