· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Modica vs Enna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Modica and 0.48 for Enna, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Modica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Modica win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Enna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 21% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Modica and 0.48 for Enna, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.3%
- 2–016.7%
- 3–010.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Modica
Enna
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Modica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Licata · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gela · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Milazzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Palermo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Modica win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.