· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Modica vs Reggina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Modica and 1.80 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Reggina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Reggina win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Reggina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Reggina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 13% / 22% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Modica and 1.80 for Reggina, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.5%
- 0–213.9%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Modica
Reggina
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Trapani 1905 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igea Virtus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Modica 0-1 Reggina (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Reggina win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.