MOFA vs Gucha Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for MOFA and 0.70 for Gucha Stars, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives MOFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

MOFA win

52.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MOFA home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gucha Stars away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MOFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for MOFA and 0.70 for Gucha Stars, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

MOFA win52%

Draw28%

Gucha Stars win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.4%
0–012.9%
1–112.2%
2–011.7%
0–19.0%

Recent form

MOFA

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Soy United · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Darajani Gogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisumu All Stars · 0-1 (L)

Gucha Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Talanta · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortune Sacco · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Darajani Gogo · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihiga United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luanda Villa · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is MOFA win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.