MOFA vs Mwatate United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for MOFA and 0.54 for Mwatate United, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives MOFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

MOFA win

76.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 0.54

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MOFA home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mwatate United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MOFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for MOFA and 0.54 for Mwatate United, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MOFA win76%

Draw16%

Mwatate United win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

2–015.6%
1–013.8%
3–011.7%
2–18.4%
1–17.5%

Recent form

MOFA

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Soy United · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Darajani Gogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisumu All Stars · 0-1 (L)

Mwatate United

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Equity Bank · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 3K · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs MCF · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Migori Youth	38	25	6	7	28	81
2	3K	38	23	8	7	36	77
3	Mombasa Elite	38	24	4	10	19	76
4	Equity Bank	38	21	11	6	28	74
5	MOFA	38	16	16	6	21	64
6	Fortune Sacco	38	18	9	11	20	63
7	Naivas	38	17	10	11	17	61
8	Talanta	38	16	9	13	12	57
9	Kibera Black Stars	38	15	8	15	-1	53
10	Soy United	38	14	10	14	4	52
11	Nzoia Sugar	38	12	14	12	1	50
12	Gucha Stars	38	12	8	18	-6	44
13	Luanda Villa	38	12	7	19	-21	43
14	Kabati Youth FC	38	10	9	19	-20	39
15	Kisumu All Stars	38	10	9	19	-24	39
16	Nairobi City Stars	38	9	12	17	-12	39
17	Darajani Gogo	38	10	8	20	-21	38
18	MCF	38	9	10	19	-18	34
19	Vihiga United FC	38	9	9	20	-26	30
20	Mwatate United	38	6	7	25	-37	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is MOFA win, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.