· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Mogren vs Lovćen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Mogren and 1.65 for Lovćen, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Lovćen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lovćen win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mogren home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lovćen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lovćen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Mogren and 1.65 for Lovćen, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Mogren
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Berane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeta · 0-0 (D)
Lovćen
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lovćen win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.