· Analysis updated 09:35 UTC
Mohun Bagan vs Bhawanipore Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mohun Bagan and 1.10 for Bhawanipore, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Mohun Bagan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mohun Bagan win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bhawanipore away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mohun Bagan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Mohun Bagan and 1.10 for Bhawanipore, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Mohun Bagan
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Coal India · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs East Bengal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T09:30:00.000Z · A vs BSS Sporting · 3-0 (W)
Bhawanipore
- 2026-08-23T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Railway · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs BSS Sporting · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Mohun Bagan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T09:30:00.000Z · A vs George Telegraph · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Calcutta Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Bengal | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Bhawanipore | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Mohun Bagan | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 30 |
| 4 | Mohammedan | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | United | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Coal India | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 22 |
| 7 | Peerless | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 8 | Aryan | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 9 | Calcutta Customs | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Calcutta Police | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Police | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | United Kolkata | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Measurers | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 14 | Kalighat | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 15 | Railway | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 16 | Kidderpore | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 17 | BSS Sporting | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Patha Chakra | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 10 |
| 19 | NA Suruchi Sangha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Rainbow | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 7 |
| 21 | Wari | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | George Telegraph | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -26 | 7 |
| 23 | Kalighat Club | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 24 | Bidhannagar | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -26 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mohun Bagan win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.